Ultra-short-term cryptocurrency trades are becoming more popular with polymarket traders, but at least one analyst thinks these traders are just engaging in covert gambling.

Yes/no contracts based on the price of Bitcoin in five or fifteen minutes are offered by Polymarket, which claims to run the largest prediction market in the world. Although traders appreciate the speedy settlement, Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, claims that those event contracts deviate from ethical investing.

"This isn’t investing. It’s high-speed speculation dressed up as opportunity,” he said in note out today. “Five-minute Bitcoin bets turn a serious asset into a short-term punt. The timeframe by definition alone removes any meaningful analysis from the equation.”

Although Polymarket provides five-minute markets on a number of other significant digital currencies, such as Ether, Solana, and XRP, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, accounts for the majority of the volume in those derivatives.

Retail Traders Face Disadvantages in Timed Crypto Markets

Unquestionably, Polymarket's five- and fifteen-minute cryptocurrency markets are drawing both expert and amateur traders. According to Dune Analytics data, daily volume in both categories has exceeded $60 million in recent weeks, whereas daily turnover for bitcoin event contracts defined in days has only reached $1 million.

Although quick transaction resolution and the ability to quickly expand their accounts are selling features for retail traders, Green cautions that they are at a technological disadvantage when compared to professionals in the same industry.

“Markets operating on minute-by-minute outcomes reward those with the fastest systems and the best information flow. Professional traders are built for that environment,” observes the deVere chief executive officer. “Most individuals are not, and they could end up on the wrong side of the trade more often than they expect.”

He continues by saying that minute-by-minute Bitcoin event contracts push retail traders to prioritize short-term price activity over fundamentals, which might result in increasingly bad decisions. Additionally, Green notes that ultra-short-term cryptocurrency contracts may cause ordinary traders to chase losses while giving professional traders who are profitable access to liquidity.

Bitcoin Could Be Distorted by Five-Minute Bets

Critics of prediction markets frequently caution that these platforms conflate betting and investing, endangering aggressive retail traders. According to Green, there are possible risks associated with Bitcoin as well, especially now that institutional investors and international governments are beginning to embrace the asset.

He claims that the idea that Bitcoin is solely speculative is fueled by five- or fifteen-minute yes/no contracts linked to price movement, but that is not how many experienced investors actually approach it.

“There are always some who are drawn to speed and short-term outcomes. That’s nothing new. What matters is recognizing what you are doing,” he concludes. “There are always some who are drawn to speed and short-term outcomes. That’s nothing new. What matters is recognizing what you are doing. But it should not be confused with serious investing, and it shouldn’t replace a long-term strategy.”